Marin Voice: Proposed agreement blocks Iran’s path to nuclear arms
After careful deliberation, I have concluded that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is our best option for preventing a nuclear-armed Iran. I am voting to support the deal.
A nuclear-armed Iran would threaten global security and ignite a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. This can’t be allowed to happen. The question is, will the JCPOA prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon?
And, are there better options?
A perfect deal would permanently ban all nuclear enrichment by Iran. We sought that during the Bush years, offering Iran more incentives than in the JCPOA.
Iran flouted our demands and accelerated its nuclear program to the point where it could now “breakout” — i.e., enrich enough fissile material for a bomb — in just a few months.
The JCPOA is not perfect. It seeks to block Iran’s path to a bomb by restricting enrichment to non-threatening levels while imposing comprehensive inspections, monitoring, and enforcement. Ninety-eight percent of Iran’s uranium stockpile would be destroyed, two-thirds of its centrifuges mothballed and key facilities disabled.
Iran’s “breakout” time would roll back to a year — long enough to catch and confront them before they develop a bomb.
Iran’s history of cheating on nuclear treaties means “trust but verify” won’t suffice; we must “distrust and verify.” I agree with nuclear experts and national security leaders who have concluded that enforcing the JCPOA’s unprecedented monitoring and inspections can keep Iran’s nuclear program “in a box” for 15 years.
Keeping Iran in that “box” is an existential concern for Israel, our most important ally in the region.
I have traveled to Israel, have family there, and I would not support the JCPOA if it “paved the way” for an Iranian bomb, as some contend. American military and intelligence officials believe it will prevent a nuclear Iran, as do many Israeli military and intelligence leaders.
As for proliferation, the Middle Eastern countries most likely to pursue a bomb if they felt the deal would fail, including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, have all endorsed the deal — a key measure of confidence that a regional nuclear arms race will be avoided.
Could we get a “better deal” by walking away?
We would be playing a much weaker hand in that case. Our negotiating partners say it’s not possible. Our multinational sanctions regime would fall apart. We’d face an enormous loss of credibility for abandoning our own deal.
It’s hard to imagine any deal, much less a “better deal,” in that scenario.
In all likelihood, if we reject the JCPOA the remaining option would be a costly war. According to military leaders, destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities could set their nuclear program back two years. It would require sustained bombing, with American casualties expected, and could easily escalate with unforeseeable consequences.
Clearly, the JCPOA offers a more responsible, effective path forward.
The JCPOA won’t change the brutal, hostile character of the Iranian regime. It’s a nuclear deal, not a transformation.
We struck nuclear deals with the USSR while confronting their belligerence and aggression. We should similarly confront Iran on support for terrorist groups, attempts to foment regional conflict, and human rights.
While struggling with this decision, the plight of my constituent Jason Rezaian, a Washington Post journalist held by Iran for over 400 days on trumped-up charges, has weighed heavily on me. I agree with President Barack Obama that securing his release, along with other innocent American prisoners, must remain separate from the JCPOA — we can’t make nuclear concessions as ransom. But I’ve urged the president and Secretary of State John Kerry to press harder to bring Jason and the others home, and they’ve assured me this will remain a high priority.
The JCPOA is an opportunity for Iran to earn relief from sanctions, show respect for human rights and the rule of law, and rejoin the global economy.
I expect Iran to release Jason Rezaian and the other innocent Americans and will continue working to make that happen.
Jared Huffman, a Democrat from San Rafael, has represented Marin in the U.S. House of Representatives since 2012.
Source: By Jared Huffman
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